A Scary 2024 Tornado Season – Deadliest in History?

In 2013, the United States experienced one of the most devastating natural disasters in recent memory: an EF5 tornado that ripped through Oklahoma. This monstrous storm left a trail of destruction, leveling entire neighborhoods and claiming lives. For a nation that sees its fair share of tornadoes every year, this EF5 was a stark reminder of the sheer power of nature. But since that fateful day, there has been a surprising lull in the frequency of such extreme events. For the past 11 years, the U.S. has not witnessed another EF5 tornado. This extended period of relative calm has left many wondering if the worst was behind us. However, recent developments suggest that this calm might have been “the quiet” before a new storm, with the 2024 tornado season shaping up to become a monster.

The beast awakens: A predicted tornado season like no other

At the beginning of this year, meteorologists across the country were sounding the alarm^[1]. Their prediction? The 2024 tornado season would be one for the record books—a season that would see a significant uptick in both the number and intensity of tornadoes. Fast forward to May, and their predictions have proven eerily accurate. Already, 670 tornadoes had touched down across The Plains and other parts of the U.S., more than 100 tornadoes above average^[2], causing widespread damage and raising concerns about what’s still to come.

(Image source)

This begs the question:

How did meteorologists know this was going to happen?

How could they foresee such a devastating season so far in advance, when weather forecasting is notoriously difficult even on a day-to-day basis? Understanding the answer requires us to delve into the science behind tornado formation, prediction methods, and the unique conditions that make the United States, particularly Tornado Alley, so vulnerable.

The unpredictable nature of weather forecasts

We’ve all been there: you’re planning your day based on the morning weather forecast, only to have reality flip the script on you. What was supposed to be a rainy day turns out to be perfectly sunny, or worse, your planned outdoor activities are washed out by unexpected downpours. Weather forecasts, despite all the technology and expertise behind them, are often perceived as unreliable, particularly when it comes to short-term predictions.

Given this, it’s natural to be skeptical when meteorologists make long-term predictions, especially when they forecast severe weather months in advance. Yet, in the case of this year’s tornado season, their predictions have been spot on. How can they miss the mark on a 10-hour rain forecast but nail a prediction made 3–4 months ahead? The answer lies in the larger patterns and conditions that govern severe weather.

The science behind tornado predictions

To understand how meteorologists were able to predict a particularly harsh tornado season, we first need to explore the conditions that lead to tornado formation. Tornadoes are one of nature’s most complex and unpredictable phenomena. Even with all the advancements in meteorology, predicting the exact time and location of a tornado remains a significant challenge. However, meteorologists can identify patterns and conditions that increase the likelihood of tornado formation on a larger scale.

The recipe for disaster: How tornadoes form

Tornadoes require a specific set of atmospheric conditions to form, and these conditions are most often found in certain regions of the United States. The two most critical ingredients for tornado formation are:

Warm, Moist Air Near the Ground: This is typically sourced from the Gulf of Mexico and is crucial because warm air is less dense and tends to rise.
Cool, Dry Air at Higher Altitudes: Often descending from the Rockies or flowing in from the west, this air mass is cooler and denser, which causes it to sink.

When these two air masses collide, the warm air rises rapidly while the cool air descends, creating a horizontally rotating tube of air. This rotation occurs due to differences in wind speed and direction at various altitudes—a phenomenon known as wind shear. Wind shear is essential for tornado formation as it helps to tilt the horizontal rotation into a vertical one, setting the stage for the birth of a tornado.

From mesocyclone to tornado: The final steps

The initial phase of tornado formation involves the creation of a mesocyclone, a large, rotating updraft within a thunderstorm. This mesocyclone is a massive column of rotating air that forms when wind shear causes the horizontal tube of rotating air to tilt upwards^[3]. However, not all mesocyclones result in tornadoes; in fact, many dissipate without ever touching the ground.

For a tornado to form, the mesocyclone must become tightly focused, narrowing into a smaller, faster-spinning column of air known as a funnel cloud. This funnel cloud remains a tornado precursor until it extends to the ground, at which point it officially becomes a tornado. The tornado is sustained by the continuous inflow of warm, moist air from the ground, much like a whirlpool is sustained by the water flowing into it. As long as this inflow continues, the tornado can maintain its strength, sometimes for miles, until the conditions that support it weaken or dissipate.

Tornado alley: Why the U.S. is the epicenter of tornado activity

While tornadoes can and do occur in many parts of the world, the United States—specifically the region known as Tornado Alley—sees more tornadoes than any other country. Tornado Alley is typically defined as the central part of the U.S., including states like Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska. This area is particularly prone to tornadoes due to its unique geography and climate.

The U.S. experiences around 1,200 tornadoes each year^[4] killing an average of 71 annually. That’s more than any other nation on Earth. In fact, that’s more than Canada, Australia and all of Europe combined.

Why?

It’s a unique combination of two key factors; a “perfect storm” of atmospheric conditions found in Tornado Alley.

Low-pressure systems pull warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and cool, dry air aloft from the Rocky Mountains or the High Desert in the southwest.
Those two fronts of air, one high above and one closer to the ground, clash in the Plains, forming strong, persistent rotating supercell storms.
The Jet Stream, a cold current of air high in the atmosphere also comes into play to increase wind sheer and produce instability.

The flat terrain of the Great Plains also plays a role, providing little resistance to the colliding air masses, allowing them to mix freely and create the conditions necessary for tornado formation.

The science of prediction: How meteorologists forecast the 2024 tornado season

Long-term weather forecasting, such as predicting the severity of a tornado season months in advance, relies on identifying large-scale patterns in the atmosphere. Meteorologists use a combination of historical data, climate models, and real-time observations to make these predictions. One key factor in predicting a strong tornado season is the presence of a La Niña or El Niño event, which can influence weather patterns across the globe.

La Niña, for example, tends to create cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which can alter jet stream patterns and create favorable conditions for tornadoes in the U.S. Other factors, such as soil moisture levels, snowpack in the Rockies, and early spring weather patterns, can also provide clues about the upcoming tornado season.

This year, the signs were clear: a strong La Niña event combined with favorable atmospheric conditions pointed to an active and potentially dangerous tornado season. Meteorologists issued their warnings early, and as the season progresses, it’s becoming evident just how accurate those warnings were.

What meteorologists saw in early 2024

So, what exactly did meteorologists observe that led them to predict such a strong tornado season in 2024? The answer lies in a combination of factors that, when viewed together, created a perfect storm scenario.

Firstly, they projected higher-than-average temperatures across The Plains, an area notorious for its tornado activity. This heat was coupled with unusually high humidity levels, providing the warm, moist air essential for tornado formation. But that wasn’t all. Meteorologists also identified a strong disturbance in the Jet Stream, which brought in high-speed cold winds from the upper atmosphere.

This combination of warm, moist air at the surface and cold, fast-moving air higher up created significant atmospheric instability—prime conditions for tornado formation.

These elements combined to create what could only be described as a “perfect storm in the making,” with all the necessary ingredients for a highly active tornado season.

Measuring the 2024 tornado season: How strong has it been so far?

With such ominous predictions, the next logical question was: Has the 2024 tornado season really been as strong as anticipated? The numbers tell a chilling story.

As of May 8th, there have been 670 confirmed tornadoes across the United States, which is 111 more tornadoes than the average for this time of year. This makes 2024 the fifth most prolific tornado season in recorded history. The intensity and frequency of these storms are both concerning and record-breaking.

April alone saw a massive outbreak of tornadoes, leading to over $2 billion in damages. This made April 2024 the second most active month for tornadoes in U.S. history. During just two days—April 26th and 27th—over 7,000 homes were destroyed. These numbers are staggering, but they’re not without precedent.

A Look Back: Historic Tornado Seasons and Their Devastation

While 2024 has been severe, it’s important to remember that it’s not the costliest or deadliest tornado season on record. For example, in 2011, the U.S. experienced one of the most destructive tornado outbreaks in its history. During this season, three tornadoes in Montana and Alabama caused nearly $10 billion in combined losses and resulted in the deaths of hundreds of people^[5].

	Date	Location(s)	Actual Damages	Inflation Adjusted
1	22 May 2011	Joplin MO	$2,800,000,000	$3,788,061,000
2	27 April 2011	Tuscaloosa AL	$2,450,000,000	$3,330,027,000
3	20 May 2013	Moore OK	$2,000,000,000	$2,624,577,000
4	8 Jun 1966	Topeka KS	$250,000,000	$2,358,727,000
5	11 May 1970	Lubbock TX	$250,000,000	$1,979,864,000
6	20 Oct 2019	North Dallas TX	$1,550,000,000	$1,841,183,000
7	3 May 1999	Moore/Oklahoma City OK	$1,000,000,000	$1,839,296,000
8	3 Mar 2020	Nashville TN	$1,504,000,000	$1,781,219,000
9	27 Apr 2011	Hackleburg AL	$1,290,000,000	$1,753,361,000
10	3 Apr 1974	Xenia OH	$250,000,000	$1,592,141,000

(Table source)

The April 27, 2011, Alabama outbreak was particularly catastrophic. On that single day, 62 tornadoes touched down, killing 252 people. This event remains the strongest and deadliest tornado outbreak in U.S. history, a somber reminder of the destructive power these storms can wield.

Tornadoes are changing: More frequent, more dangerous, and more unpredictable

As if the raw power of tornadoes weren’t enough, there’s growing evidence that these storms are becoming more frequent, more dangerous, and more unpredictable. A prime example is the 2008 “Super Tuesday” outbreak, which saw 87 strong tornadoes touch down in February—smack in the middle of winter. This event was attributed to a La Niña pattern, demonstrating that we now have to contend with both El Niño and La Niña when it comes to predicting severe weather.

Adding to the unpredictability, 2024 witnessed an extremely rare “Wrong Way” tornado—one that spun in the opposite direction of typical tornadoes. This unusual event underscores the increasing complexity of tornado behavior, making accurate forecasting more critical than ever.

The crucial role of meteorologists and storm chasers

Given the growing intensity and unpredictability of tornadoes, the role of meteorologists and storm chasers has never been more vital. But how exactly do they predict when and where a tornado is about to touch down? The first clue lies in what every weather forecaster has behind them: radar images overlaid on a map.

To better understand how these radar images work, I dug into the science behind them, discovering that there are three primary types of radar products used to study storms and identify potential tornadoes: Reflectivity, Velocity, and Correlation Coefficient.

#1. Reflectivity radar: The first line of defense

Reflectivity radar works by sending out a radar signal and waiting for the echo, or reflected signal, to bounce back off raindrops. By measuring the strength of this reflected signal, meteorologists can gauge the intensity of a storm. Stronger reflections—indicated by dark reds and oranges on a radar map—suggest more rain, while the appearance of purple or even white indicates extremely high reflectivity, often due to hail or flying debris.

(Image source)

One of the most important signatures meteorologists look for on a reflectivity radar is the “hook echo,” a distinctive shape that often appears within a supercell thunderstorm. This hook echo is a telltale sign that a tornado may be forming, as tornadoes typically develop at the tip of the hook.

#2. Velocity radar: Tracking the wind

While reflectivity radar shows where rain is falling, velocity radar provides crucial information about wind speeds and directions within a storm. Velocity radar uses the Doppler effect, the same principle that causes a siren’s pitch to change as it moves toward or away from you. By measuring changes in the frequency of the radar signal as it bounces off raindrops, meteorologists can calculate wind speeds and detect rotation within a storm—a key indicator that a tornado may be imminent[].

Velocity radar is particularly valuable because it can reveal the presence of a mesocyclone—a rotating updraft within a thunderstorm that can lead to tornado formation. When strong rotation is detected in close proximity to the ground, it’s a strong sign that a tornado is either forming or already on the ground.

#3. Correlation coefficient: Detecting debris

The third type of radar product, the Correlation Coefficient, is used to detect debris lifted into the air by a tornado. When a tornado touches down, it often picks up debris such as trees, buildings, and other materials. This debris creates a unique signature on radar, appearing as an area of low correlation between the radar signals reflected from different objects^[8]. This allows meteorologists to confirm that a tornado is not only forming but is also causing damage.

(Image source)

The limitations of radar: Why ground truth still matters

So, to summarize, the tell-tale signature of a tornado comes down to three key radar signatures:

A supercell with a hook echo in the reflectivity data.
A tightly paired velocity couplet (Ying-Yang), indicating strong rotation.
And a debris signature suggesting debris of different sizes being carried by strong tornadic winds.

However, radar signatures aren’t enough. You won’t see the local weather channel saying “There’s a tornado” unless someone has actually seen it upfront and reported it touching the ground. As powerful as radar technology is, it’s important to recognize its limitations when it comes to predicting tornadoes. That’s why they still rely on professional tornado spotters and storm chasers.

I dug deeper into how radars work and found that the answer to these limitations is two-fold.

First, radars don’t shoot their signals horizontally; instead, they’re angled slightly upward. This means that as the radar signal travels, it rises higher in the atmosphere.
Secondly, while radar signals travel in straight lines, the Earth is curved. As a result, the further a storm is from the radar, the higher in the atmosphere the signal reaches.

So, what does this mean for tornado detection? It means that when you’re looking at radar images and see rotation, a hook echo, and all the telltale signs of a tornado, you’re often seeing what’s happening high up in the clouds, not necessarily at ground level. This is a significant limitation because a tornado may be forming close to the ground—where it can do the most damage—yet remain undetected by radar.

This is why ground truth is so critical in tornado prediction and emergency response. Despite all the advancements in radar technology, we still need “boots on the ground” to confirm a tornado’s presence and declare a tornado emergency. Storm chasers, local meteorologists, and even trained spotters play a vital role in providing real-time information that can save lives. Technology has certainly advanced our ability to predict and track storms, but the complexity of weather systems means that human observation remains an indispensable part of the process.

The future of tornado prediction: Improving accuracy and saving lives

As tornadoes become more frequent and their behavior more erratic, the need for accurate and timely predictions is more pressing than ever. Meteorologists are constantly refining their tools and techniques, incorporating new technologies like advanced radar systems, machine learning algorithms, and even crowd-sourced data from storm chasers to improve their forecasts.

But despite these advancements, predicting tornadoes remains a complex and challenging task. Tornadoes can form and dissipate rapidly, and their paths can be unpredictable. The goal is to give people as much warning as possible—ideally 15 minutes or more—so they can take shelter and protect themselves and their loved ones.

What we can learn from the 2024 tornado season

The 2024 tornado season is a reminder of the power and unpredictability of nature. As we continue to advance our understanding of tornadoes and improve our forecasting capabilities, it’s clear that the challenges are significant but not insurmountable. By studying past tornadoes, leveraging cutting-edge technology, and improving public awareness and preparedness, we can better navigate the storms of the future.

The increasing frequency of tornadoes, their expanding geographical reach, and the evolving nature of these storms highlight the urgent need for continued research and innovation in tornado prediction. While we may never be able to predict every tornado with perfect accuracy, every improvement in our forecasting abilities brings us one step closer to saving lives and reducing the devastating impact of these natural disasters. As the 2024 season continues, the lessons we learn today will help us face the storms of tomorrow with greater confidence and resilience.